Study Finds Americans Lost 5.5 Million “Life Years” Because of COVID-19
When accounting for life expectancy, the U.S. contributed more than 25% of the worldwide total of life years lost.
More than 600,000 Americans have died because of COVID-19. But, researchers are just starting to understand the human toll wrought by the pandemic.
Outside of a total death count, scientists can estimate the number of “life years” lost due to accidents or other causes — a calculation that takes life expectancy into account. For example, if a person is estimated to live to 80 years old but dies at 50, it can be said they lost 30 “life years.”
Using this calculation, researchers at PEW Trusts found that the pandemic not only was responsible for 380,000 deaths in 2020 but was also responsible for over 5.5 million lost life-years. This number is greater than the sum of life-years lost in 2019 due to traffic accidents, drownings, firearm accidents, drug overdoses, and other poisonings combined. It is also nearly three times greater than the number of lives lost annually to liver disease or diabetes.
Researchers compared “provisional data” from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the final 2019 data for all causes of death for the study. Even though COVID-19 certainly affected non-coronavirus deaths as well, the researchers said that fact makes 2019 a “suitable comparison point for the typical number of deaths from various causes in a given year.”
However, researchers suggest that the enormous number of life-years lost because of the pandemic “might not be widely appreciated” because over 80% of the deaths were of people aged 65 years and older. The study cites a report by The New York Times that explores the point some have made that “these people were nearing the end of their lives anyway.”
When the death figures were compared against life expectancy, the data told a different story. According to the United Nation’s World Population Prospects, babies born in the U.S. today can expect to live to be 79-years-old. In turn, people aged 65 can expect to live until they’re 85. People who are 80-years-old can expect to live until they are 90 as well.
Life expectancy shifts over time, the study adds. One reason is that causes of death vary greatly between age groups. For example, young people are more likely to die from causes such as homicide, pregnancy complications, or congenital diseases. Meanwhile, the elderly are more susceptible to causes like Alzheimer's disease and now COVID-19.
“The pandemic, in other words, has killed many Americans who otherwise might have expected to live for years or even decades longer,” the study says. “A 65-year-old who dies from COVID-19 might ordinarily have expected to live until 85 — a difference of two decades, or roughly a quarter of the average American’s total expected life span at birth.”
A similar study published in Scientific Reports found that the total number of life-years lost in the U.S. accounts for over 25% of the world’s total. The study analyzed more than 1.2 million deaths across 81 counties and found that over 20.5 million years have been lost worldwide. In some places, the death toll was nearly 10-times greater than a normal influenza season.
Three of four life years lost worldwide were from men aged 75 years and older, according to the Scientific Reports study. One-third came from men aged 55 years and older. In total, men accounted for a 45% greater total of life years lost when compared to women.
The average years lost per death worldwide is 16 years, the study says.
While the numbers themselves are staggering, researchers from both studies say they are incomplete. One hindrance to the studies is the official death counts, which “may reflect limitations in testing as well as difficulties in counting in out-of-hospital contexts,” the Scientific Reports study says.
Another hindrance is the continued spread of COVID-19 variants across the globe. According to the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, variant cases have been detected in 96 countries. The World Health Organization says this is an undercount since several countries have maxed out their sequencing capacity.
“The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly,” The Scientific Reports study concludes. “They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.”
